Abstract:

Objective To study the prognostic value of serum markers and clinical features in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD）patients in acute exacerbation stage. Methods To compare the clinical data of COPD patients in acute exacerbation stage with different prognosis，and analyze the value of matrix metallopro⁃ teinase⁃12（MMP⁃12），fibrinogen（FIB）and Clara cell secretory protein⁃16（CC⁃16）in predicting the poor prog⁃ nosis by ROC analysis. Results The proportion of age ≥ 60 years，pulmonary function grade Ⅲ⁃Ⅳ，smoking， coronary heart disease，diabetes mellitus，gastrointestinal bleeding and the levels of MMP⁃12，FIB and CC⁃16 in patients with poor prognosis was significantly higher than that in patients with good prognosis（P < 0.05）. The area of lower curve for predicting poor prognosis of patients with different serum markers were 0.719，0.824 and 0.683 respectively. Logistic regression analysis confirmed that MMP ⁃ 12 ≥ 20.930 pg/mL，FIB ≥ 3.465 g/L，CC ⁃16 ≥ 0.405 pg/mL，age ≥ 60 years old，pulmonary function grade Ⅲ⁃Ⅳ，smoking and complications were risk factors for poor prognosis. Conclusion Age，pulmonary function classification，complications and serum levels of MMP⁃12，FIB and CC⁃16 are important predictors of prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD.

Key words:

keywords matrix metalloproteinase?12, fibrinogen, clara cell secretory protein?16, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, risk model of risk factors