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Global,regional,and national burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040
Received date: 2025-05-21
Online published: 2026-08-05
Objective This study aims to analyze the burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B(LCHB)at the global, regional and national levels, and predict the trend of the disease burden up to 2040. Methods The number of cases, age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR), disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR)of LCHB in the global geographical population from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database,stratified by Sociodemographic index(SDI), sex, and age group. Global, regional and national LCHB burden from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was used to assess the trend of LCHB burden, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC) model was used to project the burden to 2040. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR,ASMR and ASDR of LCHB generally showed a downward trend. At the regional level, Australasia, Southern Latin America, and high-income North America showed the most significant growth trends in ASIR; At the national level,there were significant differences among countries, China,India and South Korea ranked as the top three countries in terms of the number of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs in 2021. The burden of disease in males was significantly higher than that in females, and both of them increased first and then decreased with age, with the burden mainly affecting the elderly. The highest ASIR, ASMR and ASDR were found in middle SDI regions. It is expected that by 2040, ASIR, ASMR and ASDR of liver cancer due to hepatitis B in the overall, male and female population will continue to decline. Conclusions Although ASIR, ASMR and ASDR have been decreasing year by year, due to factors such as population aging, the absolute number of LCHB cases is still on the rise, and the burden is concentrated in middle and low SDI regions, among men and the elderly. China has significantly reduced the burden of LCHB by promoting the universal vaccination of newborn hepatitis B vaccines, and its prevention and control experience holds significant reference value. In the future, it is necessary to promote precise prevention and control at different levels, by gender and age, and integrate vaccination, screening and treatment to continuously reduce the global burden of LCHB.
Key words: hepatitis B; liver cancer; global; burden of disease; trend prediction
Kunzhen YANG , Dewen MAO , Hao LIU , Yuqi WANG , Anyu WEI , Minggang WANG . Global,regional,and national burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040[J]. The Journal of Practical Medicine, 2026 , 42(14) : 2558 -2569 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2026.14.009
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