Abstract:

Objective To explore the risk factors of postoperative re-fracture in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compressibility fracture （OVCF）， and toestablish a risk early warning model and verify it. Methods One hundred and eighty OVCF patients who underwent surgical treatment in nanchang hongdu traditional chinese medicine hospital from January 2020 to June 2021 were selected and divided into a re-fracture group and a nonre-fracture group. Logistic regression analysis was performed， and a line chart risk model was constructed and validated. Results Among 180 OVCF patients who underwent surgical treatment， the incidence of postoperative fractures was 22.78%. Factor analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years old， bone cement leakage， postoperative low bone mineral density， high bone cement injection rate and postoperative kyphosis Coob angle were independent risk factors for re-fracture after OVCF （P < 0.05）. Long-term anti-osteoporosis treatment and high BMI were independent protective factors （P < 0.05）.Hosmer-Lemeshow Test showed that the area under the ROC curve of 0.979 （95% CI： 0.957 ~ 1.000， P < 0.001）， the sensitivity of 92.70%， the specificity of 96.40%， and the maximum Jordan index of 0.891， the overall trend of the model correction curve was close to the ideal curve. The decision curve analysis showed a positive net benefit. Conclusion The occurrence of postoperative re-fracture in OVCF patients is influenced by multiple factors， and the risk warning model established based on risk factors has good predictive performance.

Key words: osteoporosis vertebral compressibility fracture, surgery, re-fracture, risk warning model