Perioperative Management and Critical Care Support

Prognostic value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalized Ratio(MELD-XI) score for long-term all-cause mortality in elderly patients following cardiac valve surgery

  • Wenqing ZHAO ,
  • Liuyuan LI ,
  • Chongjian ZHANG ,
  • Hailong QIU ,
  • Xiaofeng LI
Expand
  • Department of Cardiac Surgical Intensive Care Unit,Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510080,Guangdong,China

Received date: 2026-03-13

  Online published: 2026-06-30

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalized Ratio (MELD-XI) score for long-term all-cause mortality in elderly patients after cardiac valve surgery. Methods This retrospective study incorporated 263 elderly patients (aged ≥ 65 years) who underwent cardiac valve surgery at the hospital between January and December 2013. The MELD-XI score was computed based on the preoperative levels of total bilirubin and serum creatinine, and the long-term survival status was acquired. Patients were classified into a low-score group (≤ 11.82) and a high-score group (> 11.82) according to the optimal cut-off value determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to analyze the association between the MELD-XI score and long-term mortality, which was validated by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and subgroup analysis. Results Over a median follow-up period of 7.9 years, 60 patients passed away. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that for every 1-point increment in the MELD-XI score, there was a 9% rise in the mortality risk (HR = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.03 - 1.16, P = 0.002 4). The high-score group exhibited a significantly greater mortality risk when compared to the low-score group (HR = 2.36, 95%CI: 1.29 - 4.35, P = 0.005 6). Subgroup analysis revealed a consistent predictive value among patients with different clinical characteristics (all interaction P-values > 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves verified a significantly higher cumulative mortality in the high-score group (Log-rank P = 0.000 52). Conclusion The preoperative MELD-XI score serves as an independent predictor of the long-term mortality risk in elderly patients following cardiac valve surgery, where higher scores are indicative of a poorer prognosis.

Cite this article

Wenqing ZHAO , Liuyuan LI , Chongjian ZHANG , Hailong QIU , Xiaofeng LI . Prognostic value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalized Ratio(MELD-XI) score for long-term all-cause mortality in elderly patients following cardiac valve surgery[J]. The Journal of Practical Medicine, 2026 , 42(12) : 2091 -2097 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2026.12.001

References

[1] QI X, XU H, LIU Q, et al. Prospective cohort study of characteristics and sex differences in elderly patients with degenerative valvular disease[J]. BMJ Open, 2022, 12(8): e060882. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-060882 .
[2] 卜林, 胡书群, 晁亚丽, 等. 压力控制容量保证通气模式对心脏瓣膜手术患者呼吸力学、心肌损伤及术后肺部并发症的影响[J]. 实用医学杂志, 2026, 42(3): 531-540. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2026.03.023 .
[3] 孟金枝. 快速康复外科-集束干预策略对心脏瓣膜置换术患者心理应激、恢复进程及肺部并发症的影响[J]. 吉林医学, 2026, 47(1): 97-100. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-0412.2026.01. 028 .
[4] 林佳漫, 叶咏欣, 李尚航, 等. 瑞马唑仑快通道麻醉在改善心脏瓣膜手术患者术后恢复的作用[J]. 实用医学杂志, 2024, 40(14): 1988-1994. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2024.14.015 .
[5] 张媚娜, 郝春艳, 车星星. 老年退行性心脏瓣膜病诊治研究进展[J]. 中国循证心血管医学杂志, 2025, 17(12): 1527-1530. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-4055.2025.12.021 .
[6] PAGNESI M, RICCARDI M, COTTER G, et al. Special topics: Heart failure–related cardiogenic shock, valvular heart disease and end-stage renal disease. Part 4 of the International Expert Opinion Series on Acute Heart Failure Management[J]. Heart Fail Rev, 2025, 30(6): 1559-1589. doi:10.1007/s10741-025-10568-1 .
[7] LV J, ZHANG B, YE Y, et al. Assessment of cardio-renal-hepatic function in patients with valvular heart disease: A multi-biomarker approach—the cardio-renal-hepatic score[J]. BMC Med, 2023, 21(1): 257. doi:10.1186/s12916-023-02971-y .
[8] MAI J, WANG Y, LI X, et al. The association between the MELD-XI score and 30-day mortality in ICU patients with sepsis: A retrospective cohort study[J]. Sci Rep, 2025, 15: 35121. doi:10.1038/s41598-025-19074-8 .
[9] CHEN D, LU M, FU Z, et al. The association between the MELD-XI score and heart failure in patients with acute myocardial infarction after coronary artery stenting-a retrospective study[J]. J Thorac Dis, 2023, 15(5): 2721-2728. doi:10.21037/jtd-23-562 .
[10] RIZZO V, SALMASI M Y, SABETAI M, et al. Infective endocarditis: Do we have an effective risk score model? A systematic review[J]. Front Cardiovasc Med, 2023, 10: 1093363. doi:10.3389/fcvm.2023.1093363 .
[11] RICHTER M, MOSCHOVAS A, BARGENDA S, et al. Off-pump reduces risk of coronary bypass grafting in patients with high MELD-XI score[J]. Thorac Cardiovasc Surg, 2025, 73(3): 191-198. doi:10.1055/s-0044-1786039 .
[12] HEUMAN D M, MIHAS A A, HABIB A, et al. MELD-XI: A rational approach to "sickest first" liver transplantation in cirrhotic patients requiring anticoagulant therapy[J]. Liver Transpl, 2007, 13(1): 30-37. doi:10.1002/lt.20906 .
[13] BRUNO R R, WERNLY B, et al. Early evaluation of organ failure using MELD-XI in critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients[J]. Clin Hemorheol Microcirc, 2021, 79(1): 109-120. doi:10.3233/ch-219202 .
[14] STEIGER K G, HARMON D M, KILLIAN J M, et al. Valvular heart disease and its association with death in advanced heart failure[J]. J Am Heart Assoc, 2025, 14(21): e042875. doi:10.1161/jaha.125.042875 .
[15] MIZOBUCHI S, SAITO Y, FUJITO H, et al. Prognostic importance of improving hepatorenal function during hospitalization in acute decompensated heart failure[J]. ESC Heart Fail, 2022, 9(5): 3113-3123. doi:10.1002/ehf2.14046 .
[16] PANWAR R, MCNICHOLAS B, TEIXEIRA J P, et al. Renal perfusion pressure: Role and implications in critical illness[J]. Ann Intensive Care, 2025, 15(1): 115. doi:10.1186/s13613-025-01535-y .
[17] BANNON L, MERDLER I, BAR N, et al. The cardio-hepatic relation in STEMI[J]. J Pers Med, 2021, 11(12): 1241. doi:10.3390/jpm11121241 .
[18] NODA T, KAMIYA K, HAMAZAKI N, et al. Effect of change in hepato-renal function and cardiac rehabilitation on mortality in patients with heart failure[J]. J Cardiol, 2024, 84(6): 355-361. doi:10.1016/j.jjcc.2024.06.006 .
[19] LEE C J M, KOSYAKOVSKY L B, KHAN M S, et al. Cardiovascular, kidney, liver, and metabolic interactions in heart failure: Breaking down silos[J]. Circ Res, 2025, 136(11): 1170-1207. doi:10.1161/circresaha.125.325602 .
[20] LONG T, YU Y, CHENG S, et al. Prognostic value of the modified Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy[J]. Heart Rhythm O2, 2025, 6(3): 339-349. doi:10.1016/j.hroo.2024.12.014 .
[21] PFANNMUELLER B, BUDDE L M, ETZ C D, et al. Postoperative outcome after reoperative isolated tricuspid valve surgery—is there a predictor for survival?[J]. Eur J Cardio Thorac Surg, 2021, 60(4): 867-871. doi:10.1093/ejcts/ezab134 .
[22] POH C L, D’UDEKEM Y. Life after surviving fontan surgery: A meta-analysis of the incidence and predictors of late death[J]. Heart Lung Circ, 2018, 27(5): 552-559. doi:10.1016/j.hlc. 2017.11.007 .
[23] LIN Z, LIU X, XIAO L, et al. The MELD-XI score predicts 3-year mortality in patients with chronic heart failure[J]. Front Cardiovasc Med, 2022, 9: 985503. doi:10.3389/fcvm.2022.985503 .
Outlines

/