Abstract:

Objective To establish a line chart prediction model of incision complications after traditional open lumbar interbody fusion（lumbar interbody fusion，LIF），in order to provide reference for clinical periopera⁃ tive management. Methods The clinical data of patients with traditional open LIF hospitalized in our hospital from September 2015 to August 2020 were analyzed retrospectively，and the related risk factors were analyzed. The line chart prediction model was established by the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. the prediction efficiency，specificity and sensitivity of the prediction model are evaluated. Results In this study， 65 cases of postoperative incision complications occurred in 426 patients，with an incidence of 15.26%. The results of univariate analysis and multivariate unconditional Logistic regression analysis showed that age，BMI，preoperative albumin，operation time and the number of operative segments were independent risk factors for incisional compli⁃ cations after traditional open LIF，and their odds ratios were 2.290，2.679，3.524，2.740 and 3.330，respectively （P＜0.05）. The prediction model of line chart was established，and the area under ROC curve was calculated （AUC=0.809，95% CI：0.768 ~ 0.845，P＜0.001）. The Jordan index，specificity and sensitivity were 0.549， 0.795 and 0.754 respectively. Conclusions The prediction efficiency of the line chart model established in this study is good，which provides an effective reference for early clinical identification of high⁃risk groups and early intervention.

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