马尔尼菲蓝状菌病预后模型的构建

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2019.16.019

实用医学杂志 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (16): 2603-2606.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2019.16.019

马尔尼菲蓝状菌病预后模型的构建

李仕雄¹, 许超宇¹, 吕日英¹, 陈茂伟²

1广西贵港市人民医院感染性疾病科（广西贵港 537100）;
2广西医科大学第一附属医院感染性疾病科（南宁 530021）

收稿日期:2019-03-17 出版日期:2019-08-27 发布日期:2019-08-27
通讯作者: 陈茂伟 E-mail：911182361@qq.com
基金资助:
广西科技厅艾滋病防治研究重点实验室项目（编号：gklapt201703）

Prognostic risk factors and prognosis models of Talaromyces marneffei patients

LI Shixiong^*, XU Chaoyu, LÜ Riying, CHEN Maowei

*Department of Infectious Diseases, Guigang City People′s Hospital, Guigang 537100, China

Received:2019-03-17 Online:2019-08-27 Published:2019-08-27
Contact: CHEN Maowei E-mail： 911182361@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的研究影响马尔尼菲蓝状菌病（talaromycosis marneffei, TSM）预后的危险因素,并构建预后判断模型。方法对121例临床诊断TSM患者的资料进行回顾性分析,将其分成好转组与恶化组。应用Logistic回归方法进行分析,筛选出预后危险因素,建立预后模型,用独立的临床资料进行验证,评判模型判断能力。结果 121例TSM患者中好转84例,恶化37例,好转率69.4%（84/121）。Logistic回归分析结果显示血流感染、血小板计数自然对数值（lnPLT）、用药疗程、尿素（UREA）、年龄是影响TSM患者预后的独立危险因素。对所建立模型的预测能力进行评价：模型预测的准确率为91.07%,敏感性为88.24%,特异性为92.31%。结论血流感染、lnPLT、用药疗程、UREA、年龄为影响TSM患者预后的独立危险因素,可用于建立预后判断模型。本研究建立的预后判断模型对TSM患者短期预后的预测具有一定参考意义。

关键词: 马尔尼菲蓝状菌病, 预后, 危险因素, Logistic回归分析, 预后模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the factors influencing the prognosis of Talaromycosis marneffei （TSM） and to establish a prognostic model. Methods 121 cases of clinically diagnosed TSM patients were divided into deterioration group and improvement group by retrospective analysis. The clinical and laboratory data of 121 patients with TSM were analyzed retrospectively by Logistic regression method to get the prognostic factors, and then the prognosis model was established and evaluated. Results In 121 patients, 84 cases improved and 37 cases deteriorated. The improvement rate was 69.4% （84/121）. Logistic regression analysis showed that blood infection, lnPLT, medication, UREA, age were independent risk factors. The prediction ability of the prognostic model was studied. The precision of the model was 91.07%, the sensitivity was 88.24% and the specificity was 92.31%. Conclusion sBlood infection, lnPLT, medication and UREA, age are independent prognostic risk factors in patients with TSM and can be used in the construction of prognostic models. The prognosis model constructed in this study is valuable for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with TSM.

Key words: Talaromycosis marneffei, prognosis, risk factors, Logistic regression analysis, prognostic model

李仕雄, 许超宇, 吕日英, 陈茂伟. 马尔尼菲蓝状菌病预后模型的构建[J]. 实用医学杂志, 2019, 35(16): 2603-2606.

LI Shixiong, XU Chaoyu, LÜ Riying, CHEN Maowei. Prognostic risk factors and prognosis models of Talaromyces marneffei patients[J]. The Journal of Practical Medicine, 2019, 35(16): 2603-2606.

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马尔尼菲蓝状菌病预后模型的构建

Prognostic risk factors and prognosis models of Talaromyces marneffei patients

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