目的 旨在分析全球、区域和国家层面的乙型肝炎所致肝癌（liver cancer due to hepatitis B，LCHB）负担，并预测到2040年的疾病负担趋势。 方法 从2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中收集1990—2021年全球地理人群中LCHB的发病数、年龄标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate， ASIR）、死亡数、年龄标准化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate， ASMR）、伤残调整生命年（disability-adjusted life years，DALYs）及年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（age-standardized DALY rate， ASDR），按社会人口学指数（SDI）、性别和年龄组进行分层，分析了1990—2021年全球、区域和国家LCHB负担，使用估计年度百分比变化（estimated annual percentage changes， EAPC）评估LCHB负担的变化趋势，并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型（Bayesian age-period-cohort， BAPC）预测到2040年的负担。 结果 1990—2021年，全球LCHB的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR总体呈下降趋势；在区域层面，澳大拉西亚、南拉丁美洲和高收入北美的ASIR的增长趋势最显著；在国家层面，各国差异较大，2021年中国、印度和韩国的发病数、死亡数和DALYs病例数均为前三；男性疾病负担明显高于女性，且都随着年龄的增长先增加后下降，负担主要影响老年人；中等SDI地区的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR最高。预计到2040年，全球总体、男性和女性人群因乙型肝炎所致肝癌的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR呈持续下降趋势。 结论 虽然ASIR、ASMR和ASDR逐年降低，但因人口老龄化等因素，LCHB的绝对病例数仍在上升，且负担集中于中低SDI地区、男性和老年人群。中国通过普及新生儿乙肝疫苗接种，显著降低了LCHB负担，其防控经验具有重要借鉴意义。未来需推动分层、分性别、分年龄的精准防控，整合疫苗接种、筛查与治疗，以持续减轻全球LCHB负担。

Objective This study aims to analyze the burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B（LCHB）at the global， regional and national levels， and predict the trend of the disease burden up to 2040. Methods The number of cases， age-standardized incidence rate（ASIR），number of deaths， age-standardized mortality rate（ASMR）， disability-adjusted life years（DALYs）， and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate（ASDR）of LCHB in the global geographical population from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease（GBD）database，stratified by Sociodemographic index（SDI）， sex， and age group. Global， regional and national LCHB burden from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Estimated annual percentage change（EAPC）was used to assess the trend of LCHB burden， and the Bayesian age-period-cohort（BAPC） model was used to project the burden to 2040. Results From 1990 to 2021， the global ASIR，ASMR and ASDR of LCHB generally showed a downward trend. At the regional level， Australasia， Southern Latin America， and high-income North America showed the most significant growth trends in ASIR； At the national level，there were significant differences among countries， China，India and South Korea ranked as the top three countries in terms of the number of incident cases， deaths， and DALYs in 2021. The burden of disease in males was significantly higher than that in females， and both of them increased first and then decreased with age， with the burden mainly affecting the elderly. The highest ASIR， ASMR and ASDR were found in middle SDI regions. It is expected that by 2040， ASIR， ASMR and ASDR of liver cancer due to hepatitis B in the overall， male and female population will continue to decline. Conclusions Although ASIR， ASMR and ASDR have been decreasing year by year， due to factors such as population aging， the absolute number of LCHB cases is still on the rise， and the burden is concentrated in middle and low SDI regions， among men and the elderly. China has significantly reduced the burden of LCHB by promoting the universal vaccination of newborn hepatitis B vaccines， and its prevention and control experience holds significant reference value. In the future， it is necessary to promote precise prevention and control at different levels， by gender and age， and integrate vaccination， screening and treatment to continuously reduce the global burden of LCHB.