目的 探究龈沟液牙周膜相关蛋白1（PLAP-1）、黑素瘤缺乏因子2（AIM-2）水平与老年牙周炎患者临床分期、牙周指标及预后的关系。 方法 选取2021年2月至2025年2月在衡水市人民医院就诊的老年牙周炎患者104例作为研究对象，根据患者牙周炎临床分期将其分为Ⅰ—Ⅱ期组与Ⅲ—Ⅳ期组，根据患者牙周基础治疗后6个月复查牙周袋深度的结果，将患者分为预后良好组和预后不良组。采用ELISA法检测龈沟液中PLAP-1、AIM-2水平，分析不同临床分期牙周炎患者PLAP-1、AIM-2水平差异，比较牙周指标变化和PLAP-1、AIM-2水平的相关性，比较不同预后情况牙周炎患者PLAP-1、AIM-2水平及资料差异。logistic回归分析影响牙周炎患者预后状况的相关因素，ROC曲线分析龈沟液PLAP-1、AIM-2水平对牙周炎患者预后状况的预测价值，H-L检验分析龈沟液PLAP-1、AIM-2水平联合预测方案的拟合优度。 结果 Ⅲ—Ⅳ期组PLAP-1水平低于Ⅰ—Ⅱ期组，AIM-2水平高于Ⅰ—Ⅱ期组（P < 0.05）。牙周炎患者牙周临床指标探诊深度（PD）、附着水平（AL）与龈沟液PLAP-1水平呈负相关，与AIM-2水平呈正相关（P < 0.05）。预后不良组龈沟液PLAP-1水平低于预后良好组，AIM-2水平高于预后良好组（P < 0.05）。高水平的最深PD值、AIM-2及低水平的PLAP-1是老年牙周炎患者预后不良的危险因素（P < 0.05）。龈沟液PLAP-1、AIM-2水平及二者联合对老年牙周炎患者预后状况预测的曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.820、0.832、0.895，联合两指标预测效能优于单一指标预测（Z_{PLAP-1-联合预测} = 2.612、Z_{AIM-2-联合预测} = 2.359，P = 0.009、0.017）。联合检验方案拟合优度经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验后，χ² = 4.323，P = 0.823，一致性较好。 结论 老年牙周炎患者龈沟液PLAP-1、AIM-2水平与其临床分期、牙周指标及预后关系密切，对龈沟液中AIM-2水平升高、PLAP-1水平降低的老年牙周炎患者，临床医师需密切关注此类患者口腔状况。

Objective To explore the relationship between the levels of periodontal ligament associated protein 1 （PLAP-1） and absent in melanoma 2 （AIM-2） in gingival crevicular fluid， and the clinical stage， periodontal indicators， and prognosis of elderly patients with periodontitis. Methods A total of 104 elderly patients with periodontitis who presented at our hospital between February 2021 and February 2025 were selected as the research subjects. The patients were classified into the stage Ⅰ—Ⅱ group and the stage Ⅲ—Ⅳ group according to the clinical stage of periodontitis. Based on the results of the re-examination of periodontal pocket depth 6 months after periodontal basic treatment， the patients were divided into the good prognosis group and the poor prognosis group. The levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 in gingival crevicular fluid were measured by ELISA. The differences in the levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 among periodontitis patients at different clinical stages were analyzed. The correlation between the changes in periodontal indicators and the levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 was analyzed. The differences in the levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2， as well as other data， among periodontitis patients with different prognostic conditions were analyzed. Additionally， logistic regression was employed to analyze the related factors influencing the prognosis of patients with periodontitis. The ROC curve was utilized to explore the predictive value of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 levels in gingival crevicular fluid for the prognosis of patients with periodontitis. The H-L test was used to assess the goodness of fit of the combined prediction scheme of the levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 in gingival crevicular fluid. Results The level of PLAP-1 in the stage Ⅲ—Ⅳ group was significantly lower than that in the stage Ⅰ—Ⅱ group， while the level of AIM-2 was significantly higher than that in the stage Ⅰ—Ⅱ group （P < 0.05）. The probing depth （PD） and attachment level （AL） of patients with periodontitis were negatively correlated with the level of PLAP-1 in gingival crevicular fluid and positively correlated with the level of AIM-2 （P < 0.05）. The level of PLAP-1 in gingival crevicular fluid in the poor prognosis group was significantly lower than that in the good prognosis group， and the level of AIM-2 was significantly higher than that in the good prognosis group （P < 0.05）. High levels of the deepest PD value and AIM-2， along with a low level of PLAP-1， were identified as risk factors for poor prognosis in elderly patients with periodontitis （P < 0.05）. The areas under the curve （AUC） for predicting the prognosis of elderly patients with periodontitis by the levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 in gingival crevicular fluid and their combination were 0.820， 0.832， and 0.895， respectively. The predictive efficiency of combining the two indicators was superior to that of a single indicator （Z_{PLAP-1-combined prediction} = 2.612， Z_{AIM-2-combined prediction} = 2.359， P = 0.009， 0.017）. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the goodness-of-fit of the combined test scheme showed χ² = 4.323 and P = 0.823， indicating good consistency. Conclusions The levels of PLAP-1 and AIM-2 in the gingival crevicular fluid of elderly patients with periodontitis are closely associated with their clinical staging， periodontal indicators， and prognosis. For elderly periodontitis patients who present with increased AIM-2 levels and decreased PLAP-1 levels in the gingival crevicular fluid， clinicians should closely monitor their oral condition.