目的 探究结肠镜诊治肠道准备质量及轻微不良事件的相关影响因素，并构建预测模型。 方法 纳入2021年7月至2023年6月空军军医大学第一附属医院消化内镜中心行结肠镜检查患者573例，根据波士顿肠道准备评分量表（BBPS）评估肠道准备质量，分为准备不合格组112例、合格组461例；根据结肠镜诊治后30 d内轻微不良事件发生情况分为发生组106例、未发生组467例。采用logistic回归分析肠道准备不合格、结肠镜诊治后轻微不良事件发生的独立危险因素，绘制受试者工作曲线（ROC）分析预测变量的准确性，并构建风险评分表进行分析。 结果 肠道准备质量合格组患者的BBPS总分高于不合格组（P < 0.05）；30 d内轻微不良事件总发生率为18.50%，其中肠道质量准备不合格组轻微不良事件发生率（36.61%）显著高于合格组轻微不良事件发生率（14.10%）（P < 0.05）。肠道准备质量不合格的多因素结果显示：年龄≥ 60岁、体质量指数（body mass index， BMI） ≥ 28 kg/m²、便秘史、糖尿病、合并钙拮抗剂药物、Bristol粪便分型1 ~ 2型是肠道准备质量不合格的独立危险因素（P ＜ 0.05）；ROC分析显示：年龄、便秘史、糖尿病、合并钙拮抗剂药物、Bristol粪便分型以及联合预测肠道准备质量不合格方面均具有统计学意义（P < 0.05），BMI则不具有统计学意义（P ＞ 0.05）。结肠镜诊治后轻微不良事件发生的多因素结果显示：年龄≥ 60岁、合并基础疾病数量≥ 1、活检/息肉切除术、服用华法林是患者结肠镜诊治后轻微不良事件发生的独立危险因素（P < 0.05）；ROC分析显示：年龄、合并基础疾病数量、活检/息肉切除术、华法林以及联合预测轻微不良事件均具有统计学意义（P ＜ 0.05）。分别对肠道准备质量不合格、结肠镜诊治后轻微不良事件构建模型中危险因素的比值比（OR）进行赋值，总分均为 100分。验证结果显示，结肠镜诊治肠道准备质量不合格及轻微不良事件的临床风险评分联合logistic回归模型对二者同时发生均具有预测价值（P < 0.05），其中联合预测AUC为0.880，灵敏度0.829，特异度0.707。 结论 结肠镜诊治肠道准备质量和诊治后轻微不良事件发生具备一定相关性。年龄≥ 60岁、BMI ≥ 28 kg/m²、便秘史、糖尿病、合并使用钙拮抗剂药物、Bristol粪便分型1 ~ 2型是肠道准备质量不合格的独立危险因素，年龄≥ 60岁、合并使用基础疾病数量≥ 1、活检/息肉切除术、合并使用华法林是患者结肠镜诊治后轻微不良事件发生的独立危险因素。针对上述因素，应采取措施进行预防，从而改善疾病预后。

Objective To construct a predictive model to explore the factors influencing bowel preparation for colonoscopy and the risks of mild adverse events during colonoscopy. Methods A total of 573 patients undergoing colonoscopy at the digestive endoscopy center of the First Affiliated Hospital of the Air Force Military Medical University from July 2021 to June 2023 were enrolled in this prospective study. The patients were divided into an adequate group （n = 112） and an inadequate group （n = 461） based on bowel preparation assessed with the Boston Intestinal Readiness Score Scale （BBPS）. Again， they were divided into an occurrence group （n = 106） and a non-occurrence group （n = 467） based on minor adverse events within 30 days after colonoscopy. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of inadequate bowel preparation and minor adverse events after colonoscopy； model discrimination was quantified with receiver-operating characteristic （ROC） curve analysis， and the derived coefficients were used to construct a clinically applicable risk-scoring system. Results The adequate group achieved a significantly higher BBPS total score than the inadequate group （P < 0.05）. The 30-day cumulative incidence of minor adverse events after colonoscopy was 18.5%. Inadequate bowel preparation was associated with a markedly higher event rate （36.61%） than adequate preparation （14.10%； P < 0.05）. Multivariable logistic regression identified the following independent predictors of inadequate bowel preparation： age ≥ 60 years， body-mass index ≥ 28 kg/m2， history of constipation， diabetes mellitus， concomitant calcium-channel-blocker use， and Bristol Stool Form Scale types 1 ~ 2 （all P < 0.05）. ROC analysis confirmed that age， constipation history， diabetes， calcium-channel-blocker use， Bristol stool type， and their combined model were all significant predictors （P < 0.05）， whereas BMI alone was not （P > 0.05）. Independent risk factors for post-colonoscopy minor adverse events were age ≥ 60 years， presence of ≥ 1 comorbidity， performance of biopsy or polypectomy， and warfarin use （all P < 0.05）. ROC analysis demonstrated significant predictive value for age， number of comorbidities， biopsy/polypectomy， warfarin use， and their combined model （P < 0.05）. Odds ratios derived from the multivariable models were converted into weighted scores； the resulting composite risk scale ranged from 0 to 100. In the validation cohort， this combined score predicted both inadequate bowel preparation and subsequent minor adverse events （P < 0.05）， with an area under the curve of 0.880 （95% CI not shown）， sensitivity of 0.829， and specificity of 0.707. Conclusion Inadequate bowel preparation and post-colonoscopy minor adverse events are inter-related. Independent predictors of inadequate preparation are age ≥ 60 years， BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2， constipation， diabetes mellitus， concurrent calcium-channel-blocker use， and Bristol Stool Form Scale types 1-2. Independent predictors of minor adverse events are age ≥ 60 years， ≥ 1 comorbidity， biopsy or polypectomy， and warfarin use. Targeted preventive measures against these factors should be implemented to improve clinical outcomes.